This episode covers the easing of travel to the mainland from Hong Kong and Macao; the share of China’s private sector in the country’s top 100 largest listed firms; projected growth of China’s renewable power installations; and China’s five-year growth projection. From the Chamber side, the fifth edition of the Shanghai Position Paper will launch on 14th February.
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Optimisation of travel measures regarding inbound passengers to the mainland from Hong Kong and Macao:
PIIE China’s state vs. private sector tracker:
Fitch Ratings’ 2023 projection about China’s renewable power installations:
IMF 2022 Article IV consultation with the People’s Republic of ChinRUI:
Launch of the Shanghai Position Paper 2023/2024:
RUI: Hello and welcome to China Shortcuts,
RUI: Starting from 6th February, Beijing dropped limitations on passenger flows from Hong Kong and Macao.
MARIANN: According to the new travel measures, passengers arriving to the mainland from the two cities no longer need to make reservations for crossing the border. Furthermore, Chinese authorities have also dropped PCR testing requirements for travellers from Hong Kong and Macao, as long as they don’t have an overseas travel history within seven days prior to their departure. Health code and temperature checks, however, will still be in place until further notice.
RUI: According to data published on 2nd February by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the share of China’s top-100 largest listed firms that are private companies continued to drop in the second half of 2022.
MARIANN: The Washington-based think tank’s data showed that starting from the second half of 2021, the private sector’s share began declining from a peak of more than 55 per cent in mid-2021. Previous to this drop, its share had been continuously rising since the end of 2010, when the data tracking started. The rate of decline was the sharpest in the second half of 2021, and has been slowing in each consecutive half year since. At the end of 2022, the private sector’s share stood at 42.8 per cent of the country’s 100 largest listed firms ranked by market value. As the Peterson Institute highlighted, the private sector’s share still remains significantly higher than it was throughout the 2010s, when it rose from less than 8 per cent at the end of 2010 to 36 per cent by the end of 2019.
RUI: Fitch Ratings has projected that China’s renewable power installations will maintain robust growth in 2023.
MARIANN: In their commentary released on 2nd February, the international credit rating agency said the country’s installation of wind and solar power capacity expanded 22 per cent last year, following the combined impact of strong demand, lower raw material costs and a low base effect for wind power. Fitch Ratings pointed out that solar panel installations saw rapid growth in 2022, primarily as a result of high coal prices driving demand for solar power seen as a more attractive alternative both in terms of cost and availability. They expect to see this trend continue in 2023, with wind power installations also recovering after two years of decline, which the agency explained was due to the phasing out of subsidies.
RUI: The International Monetary Fund lowered its five-year growth projection for China, warning that the country faces challenges on its path to economic recovery.
MARIANN: According to the IMF’s latest review released on 3rd February, China’s annual growth will gradually slow over the next five years. The 2027 GDP growth projection was lowered from the 4.6 per cent estimated in October, to 3.8 per cent. The fund highlighted that in order to sustain its recovery, China needs to implement comprehensive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms to address major headwinds such as the contraction in real estate, a shrinking population and slowing productivity growth.
RUI: While Shanghai has for several years been attempting to develop a headquarters economy, nearly three years of closed borders—including the well-publicised citywide lockdown in the spring of 2022—has compromised its reputation as an internationally competitive city.
MARIANN: The upcoming, fifth edition of the European Chamber’s Shanghai Position Paper examines how the city can restore its standing as an attractive investment destination.
RUI: Join us in Shanghai on 14th February for the launch of the Shanghai Position Paper 2023/2024, to find out more about European businesses’ concerns, and their recommendations for the city’s economic recovery, which will require an improvement in operating conditions for all businesses operating in Shanghai.
MARIANN: Following its launch, the Shanghai Position Paper will also be available on the Chamber’s website, where you can download all our publications for free.
RUI: Thanks for listening. Tune in again in next week.
MARIANN: In the meantime, find useful links in the episode notes.