This episode contains segments on:

• China’s December foreign trade data;
• Q4 GDP;
• December’s macroeconomic data; and
• The State Council meeting on boosting consumption

The Chamber is conducting its annual Business Confidence Survey until 13^th February. Members are invited to fill in the survey, and those who complete the survey will be entered into a lucky prize draw.

Contact:

We’d love to hear your feedback. Contact us at website@europeanchamber.com.cn.

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Read more:

December 2025’s Foreign Trade Data

http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2025-12/14/article_2026011411285675333.html

http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2025-12/14/article_2026011411285532603.html

http://www.customs.gov.cn/customs/2025-12/14/article_2026011411285549251.html

China’s Q4 GDP Performance

https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202601/t20260119_1962330.html

China’s December 2025’s Macroeconomic Data

https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202601/t20260119_1962323.html

https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202601/t20260119_1962329.html

State Council Meeting on Boosting Consumption

https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/202601/content_7054990.htm

https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/sjjd/202601/t20260119_1962337.html

Transcript:

NOAH: Hello and welcome to China ShortCuts,

XINHE: the European Chamber’s weekly catch-up on China’s business landscape.

NOAH: This episode was recorded on 21^st January 2026.

(Music)

NOAH: China recorded a record USD 1.2 trillion trade surplus with the rest of the world in 2025, according to data published by the Chinese General Administration of Customs. Chinese exports grew by 5.5 per cent year-on-year, while imports from the rest of the world remained flat, registering 0.0 per cent growth in value terms, relative to 2024.

XINHE: China’s strong export growth was in part driven by a rise in exports to ASEAN and the EU, which grew by 13.4 per cent and 8.4 per cent year-on-year respectively in 2025. China’s strong export performance has also sparked concerns among key Chinese trade partners—including the EU and several of its member states—relating to the challenge that Chinese imports may pose to their industrial competitiveness.

Noah: By contrast, following bilateral trade tensions remaining high for much of the year, Chinese exports to the US fell by 20 per cent in 2025, compared to a year prior.

Disparity was also seen at the product level, with semiconductor and ship exports recording particularly strong growth, increasing by 26.8 per cent and 26.7 per cent year-on-year in value terms. Conversely, Chinese toy and furniture exports—two areas where the US has historically been a key market—declined by 12.7 per cent and 6.1 per cent year-on-year in value terms.

Xinhe: Imports to China from the rest of the world remained flat overall in 2025, recording 0.0 per cent growth relative to a year prior. At the product level, imports of high-tech products grew by 9.3 per cent in value terms. At the other end of the spectrum, Chinese imports of automobile vehicles and chassis sharply declined, falling by 39.7 per cent, with this a reflection of the fierce competition that companies operating in the sector—which is highly oversaturated—face.

(Music)

Noah: As a result of its strong export performance, China achieved its target of recording “around five per cent” GDP growth in 2025, as set out at the 2025 Two Sessions, hitting that target exactly.

XINHE: Growth was uneven throughout the year. China registered a significantly higher GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2025, coming in at 5.4 per cent and 5.2 per cent respectively. This compared to a rate of 4.8 per cent in Q3, and then 4.5 per cent in the final quarter of the year, as China recorded the its lowest quarterly GDP growth since Q1 2023.

(Music)

NOAH: Data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, on 19^th January, shows China recorded strong industrial production growth in December 2025, with factory output increasing by 5.2 per cent compared to a year prior.

XINHE: Production output increased in 33 out of 41 surveyed sectors, with the computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing sector, as well as the  automobile manufacturing industry, seeing particularly strong growth of 11.8 per cent and 8.3 per cent respectively in the last month of the year.

By contrast, retail sales—which provide a general gauge of overall consumer confidence in the economy—grew by a more tepid 0.9 per cent year-on-year in December, the slowest monthly rate recorded since December 2022. This slowdown was in no small part due to a drop in the value of automotive sales.  

(Music)

NOAH: At a State Council executive meeting on 16^th January, Chinese Premier Li Qiang announced that the country’s authorities are currently in the process of drafting a five-year plan on expanding consumption, as well as an income growth plan for urban and rural residents. Their publication will marking the first time that the central government has published a standalone plane centred on either of these themes.

XINHE: The development follows there having long been a mismatch between supply and demand growth in the Chinese economy, with this having contributed to overproduction in key sectors, as well as falling factory gate prices.

(Music)

NOAH: The European Chamber launched its most important advocacy initiative, the Business Confidence Survey—or BCS—on 15^th January.

XINHE: The BCS provides the most accurate picture of European business sentiment towards the China market and plays a key role in shaping the Chamber’s advocacy messaging for the coming year.

NOAH: February 13^th is the last day to fill out the survey. Members that complete the survey will be entered into a lucky draw, with 12 prizes on offer.

(Music)

XINHE: Thanks for listening, and don’t forget to tune in next week.

NOAH: In the meantime, please find useful links in the episode notes.