This episode contains segments on:
- Central Economic Work Conference
- China’s November macroeconomic data: retail sales and industrial production
- China’s trade surplus in the first 11 months of 2025
The European Chamber launched a report Dealing with Supply Chain Dependencies: Challenges and Choices, which is free to download from the Chamber’s official website.
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Read more:
Central Economic Work Conference
https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202512/content_7050963.htm?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Retail sales of consumer goods
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202512/t20251215_1962071.html
Industrial production statistics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202512/t20251215_1962074.html
Real Estate Market Development
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202512/t20251215_1962072.html
China’s trade surplus
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/chinas-exports-rebound-in-november-97f24e06
The Chamber’s latest report: Dealing with Supply Chain Dependencies: Challenges and Choices
https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/dealing-with-supply-chain-dependencies
Transcript:
RUI: Hello and welcome to China ShortCuts,
Robbie: the European Chamber’s weekly catch-up on China’s business landscape.
RUI: This episode was recorded on 17th December 2025.
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Robbie: 2025’s Central Economic Work Conference took place in Beijing between 10th–11th December. The annual conference sees China’s leaders deliberating on the country’s economic policies and setting priorities for the coming year, including the growth target for 2026, the budget deficit and debt issuance. The targets decided upon are expected to be formally announced at next year’s Two Sessions.
Rui: A readout of the meeting published by state media outlet Xinhua noted that the government would strive to continuously expand domestic demand and optimise supply in 2026, as well as that there would be ‘in-depth implementation of special actions to boost consumption’.
Robbie: Adhering to domestic demand as the driving force and building a strong domestic market was listed as the first economic task for 2026, while adhering to innovation-driven development and accelerating the cultivation and strengthening of new growth drivers featured second.
(Music)
Rui: Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3 per cent year-on-year in November, according to data published this week by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics. Monthly retail sales reached Chinese yuan (CNY) 4,390 billion in November, with year-to-date sales of consumer goods standing at CNY 45,607 billion, an increase of 4 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Robbie: Posting a 1 per cent increase, sales growth in urban areas was relatively slow compared to sales in rural areas, which grew by 2.8 per cent.
Rui: Online sales figures recorded strong growth of 9.1 per cent year-on-year, hitting CNY 14,458 billion, aided by a record-long sales period for Singles’ Day.
(Music)
Robbie: Industrial production growth continued to outpace retail growth in November, increasing by4.8 per cent year-on-year, the slowest rate of increase since August 2024. The mining industry performed relatively strongly registering a growth rate of 6.3 per cent, while manufacturing and utilities grew by 4.6 and 4.3 per cent respectively.
Rui: At the sectoral-level, industrial growth was registered in 30 out of 41 industries. The value of production in the automotive industry increased by 11.9 per cent year-on-year, as did production in the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace and other transportation equipment; the production of chemical raw materials and products increased by 6.7 per cent, while electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing posted 4.4 per cent production growth.
Robbie: Cement production declined by 8.2 per cent and steel by 2.6 per cent. This can in part be attributed to ongoing weakness in China’s real estate sector, with figures published by the National Bureau of Statistics on 15th December showing total year-to-date investment in the sector down 15.9 per cent as of the end of November, while completed construction projects were down 18 per cent.
(Music)
Rui: China’s recorded trade surplus reached United States dollar (USD) 1.08 trillion during the first 11 months of 2025, making it the first country in recorded history to reach the USD 1 trillion milestone. Overall, Chinese exports grew by 5.4 per cent year-on-year between January and November, with exports of Chinese goods to the European Union up by 15 per cent compared to the previous year.
Robbie: This development follows long-standing producer price deflation in China, with factory gate prices having fallen for 38 consecutive months as of November 2025, as well as the renminbi depreciating by approximately 10 per cent relative to the Euro in 2025.
(Music)
Rui: To learn more about the dilemma that China’s global supply chain dominance has created for European companies, check out the Chamber’s latest thematic report, Dealing with Supply Chain Dependencies: Challenges and Choices. While EU companies remain committed to the Chinese market, the report finds that China’s outsized influence on supply chains is now resulting in negative outcomes for some foreign companies and third-country markets alike, which is pushing them to diversify away from China.
Robbie: China’s highly efficient industrial clusters have seen it become the world’s only manufacturing superpower and a cornerstone of global supply chains, essential for producing numerous products. However, for many companies, while cost and efficiency are still important considerations, other factors, including the need to ensure resilience and flexibility, are increasingly driving supply chain decision making.
Rui: The report can be downloaded for free on the European Chamber’s website.
Robbie: Thanks for listening, and don’t forget to tune in again next time.
Rui: In the meantime, please find useful links in the episode notes.